The global trade in goods

Last year, the customs general administration spokesman said, China will overtake the United States, the global trade in goods was topped by a few a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the part of the view that the United States the world's trade great-power status were overthrown, China has to rise.

 

This result is hard-won, is accompanied by huge trade scale of China's welfare recessive drain and ecological damage. And trade scale advantage can amass a great power status is also a doubt, because China's economic structure belongs to the typical economic characteristics, strong control to lack of self-discipline autonomous ability and market pricing efficiency, which make China in the short term it is difficult to put the trade scale advantage effectively into market advantage in the international market, China's price in the international trade of passive receiver position short-term difficult to change. Besides, although a great improvement in recent years, China's export structure, such as general trade import and export more than 52.8% last year, but high added value of general trade, and the service trade and intellectual property rights, etc., still trade with Europe and the United States, and other power gap is not small.

 

At the same time, China's ability to the status of the no.1 world trade faces many challenges. In general, a country's export and trade surplus is the net export and export its real savings, just aging China has genuine saving scarce problem, has been increasingly difficult to meet domestic demand. China to maintain the international trade status, or with external dependency factor resources, and gradually turned to the current account deficit, rather than export surplus, either through financial and capital projects to attract a large number of foreign capital to satisfy domestic real savings is scarce, and department of trade and non-trade departments of genuine saving resources, to do big trade cake.

 

However, it will face the specter of the wasted effort. First, the current ecological vulnerability have been unable to continue carrying more profligate export-oriented policy, and under the background of population aging, to maintain dominance of international trade, the export of savings will herald real domestic inflation and asset price bubbles to steep, and deteriorating domestic economic, ecological environment in the international trade in scale curse.

 

Second, the current international trade is from began to trade goods or goods to trade in services and intellectual property rights is given priority to, and the service trade and intellectual property is weakness of China's trade. Current 3 d printing, digital technology, mobile storage, such as technology development, is from a manufacturing and trading on both ends of the deep reform of economic and social ecology, namely digital technology, mobile storage, greatly improve the information asymmetry, continuously reduce market transaction costs, and promote the production and consumption is compact in time and space docking, personalization, customization consumption demand will gradually dominate the production system; And new materials such as 3 d printing and nano technology, it will gradually lead to production or consumption of new economic ecology, standardized mass production and make it difficult to adapt to consumer demand in the future.

 

Current, on the other hand, represented by the TPP and TTIP pay more attention to service, intellectual property rights of free trade agreement, will speed up the transformation of the international trading system, and thus weaken China's goods trade competitive advantage under the WTO system. As along with the advancement of emerging free-trade agreements such as the TPP, part of the domestic trade department will bring such as rising labor costs and high prices of China's integrated operation cost is high, and turning to lower-cost countries and regions; Meet the demand of new technology and change at the same time Europe and the United States manufacturing reshaping and backflow, will make China a rising tide lifts all boats to fully enjoy the European and American economic recovery and growth of demand, thus increasing the difficulty of China's trade sector to expand.

 

Thus, the current Chinese carefully deliberating and restraint glamorous behind these malaises, purification to leverage some stains in the economy, and the relay injected endogenous energy to the economic reform, should not be exaggerated in the field of a driven beauty.